Monday, February 14, 2011

Egypt- time for Israel to settle with the Palestinians

Egypt has a population of 80 million. It is much bigger than the rest of Israel's neighbors (and the Palestinians) put together.

Egypt, Israel, And A Strategic Reconsideration: "The future of Gaza or the precise borders of a Palestinian state are trivial compared to preserving the treaty with Egypt. If it is found that a particular political strategy undermines the strategic requirement, then that political strategy must be sacrificed.

In other words, the worst-case scenario for Israel would be a return to the pre-1978 relationship with Egypt without a settlement with the Palestinians. That would open the door for a potential two-front war with an intifada in the middle. To avoid that, the ideological pressure on Egypt must be eased, and that means a settlement with the Palestinians on less-than-optimal terms. The alternative is to stay the current course and let Israel take its chances. The question is where the greater safety lies. Israel has assumed that it lies with confrontation with the Palestinians. That’s true only if Egypt stays neutral. If the pressure on the Palestinians destabilizes Egypt, it is not the most prudent course.

(originally from Egypt, Israel and a Strategic Reconsideration | STRATFOR )

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